hurricane update from NHC Hurricane dorian advisory 11

..NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REAFFIRM DORIAN'S CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...

A Hurricane Warning continues for the Northwest Bahamas excluding Andros Island. A Hurricane Watch continues for Andros Island. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the east coast of Florida from Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm winds beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Monday. Interests elsewhere in South and Central Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida tonight or Sunday.

Hurricane Dorian is centered as of 8 p.m. EDT about 155 miles (245 km) east of Great Abaco Island and about 335 miles (540km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Dorian is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of Dorian should be near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). Dorian remains a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.

A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:
Northwest Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast U.S...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 11 p.m. EDT and is accessed at www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Dorian